The retention account: predicted churn at day 0, what LIFE OS kept and with which action, and where patients still leak.
How many patients do we keep?
Synthetic demo data
Predicted discontinuations at day 0
126
of 700 · population prior
At risk now (≥ 60%)
91
Kept by an action so far
90 / 71%
improved after an action and now under the churn line
Unsolved at risk
3
no untried action clears the evidence bar
Best action per accepted
GI-04
30% kept per accepted
What churn costs, what interventions bring back
€320/patient/month · 18 months remaining · €45 per intervention · editOne churned patient
€6k
retail cost × months remaining
Churn at risk now
€524k
91 patients ≥ 60% risk
Brought back so far
€518k
90 patients kept
Intervention spend
€12k
all accepted instances
Net · ROI
€507k · 44×
value brought back ÷ spend
| Action | Kept | Spend | Brought back | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GI-04 | 22 | €3k | €127k | 39× |
| DT-01 | 16 | €855 | €92k | 108× |
| HY-01 | 14 | €810 | €81k | 100× |
| CR-01 | 11 | €585 | €63k | 108× |
| SC-12 | 7 | €1k | €40k | 30× |
| ME-01 | 7 | €2k | €40k | 19× |
| NP-02 | 5 | €2k | €29k | 16× |
| BR-03 | 5 | €585 | €29k | 49× |
| AD-05 | 3 | €360 | €17k | 48× |
Where patients leak
From at-risk to retained. The biggest leak is almost never at "recommended".
- At risk (now or when recommended)228
- Recommended207−9%
- Accepted183−12%
- Adhered (≥ 70%)183−0%
- Retained (risk < 60%)110−40%
What kept them
| Action | Accepted | Improved | Kept | Kept / accepted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GI-04 GI Support Protocol | 73 | 50 | 22 | 30% |
| DT-01 Dosing / Timing Recommendation | 19 | 16 | 16 | 84% |
| HY-01 Hydration Protocol | 18 | 14 | 14 | 78% |
| CR-01 Clinician Review | 13 | 13 | 11 | 85% |
| SC-12 Supportive Compound | 30 | 22 | 7 | 23% |
| ME-01 Monitoring Escalation | 46 | 46 | 7 | 15% |
| NP-02 Dietary Support Protocol | 41 | 24 | 5 | 12% |
| BR-03 Behavioural Recommendation | 13 | 5 | 5 | 38% |
| AD-05 Adherence Support | 8 | 3 | 3 | 38% |
By fortnight of recommendation
Recommended → accepted → adhered → retained, per 14-day window of treatment.
| Days | Recommended | Accepted | Adhered | Retained |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–27 | 50 | 41 | 41 | 34 |
| 28–41 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 42–55 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 5 |
| 56–69 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 3 |
| 70–83 | 94 | 88 | 88 | 15 |
| 84–97 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 5 |
| 98–111 | 26 | 17 | 17 | 5 |
| 112–125 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 18 |
| 126–139 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| 140–153 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
"Kept" is attributed conservatively: improved after the action and currently under 60% discontinuation risk. Learning shows how these outcomes change the model.