The retention account: predicted churn at day 0, what LIFE OS kept and with which action, and where patients still leak.
How many patients do we keep?
Synthetic demo data
Predicted discontinuations at day 0
50
of 500 · population prior
At risk now (≥ 60%)
45
Kept by an action so far
61 / 122%
improved after an action and now under the churn line
Unsolved at risk
13
no untried action clears the evidence bar
Best action per accepted
GI-04
46% kept per accepted
What churn costs, what interventions bring back
€8k/patient/month · 9 months remaining · €210 per intervention · editOne churned patient
€74k
retail cost × months remaining
Churn at risk now
€3.3M
45 patients ≥ 60% risk
Brought back so far
€4.5M
61 patients kept
Intervention spend
€26k
all accepted instances
Net · ROI
€4.5M · 173×
value brought back ÷ spend
| Action | Kept | Spend | Brought back | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GI-04 | 12 | €5k | €886k | 162× |
| ME-01 | 10 | €4k | €738k | 176× |
| DT-01 | 10 | €3k | €738k | 234× |
| BR-03 | 7 | €2k | €517k | 224× |
| CR-01 | 6 | €1k | €443k | 301× |
| HY-01 | 5 | €2k | €369k | 220× |
| SC-12 | 4 | €3k | €295k | 88× |
| NP-02 | 4 | €3k | €295k | 117× |
| AD-05 | 3 | €2k | €221k | 117× |
Where patients leak
From at-risk to retained. The biggest leak is almost never at "recommended".
- At risk (now or when recommended)133
- Recommended117−12%
- Accepted100−15%
- Adhered (≥ 70%)100−0%
- Retained (risk < 60%)76−24%
What kept them
| Action | Accepted | Improved | Kept | Kept / accepted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GI-04 GI Support Protocol | 26 | 19 | 12 | 46% |
| ME-01 Monitoring Escalation | 20 | 20 | 10 | 50% |
| DT-01 Dosing / Timing Recommendation | 15 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| BR-03 Behavioural Recommendation | 11 | 7 | 7 | 64% |
| CR-01 Clinician Review | 7 | 7 | 6 | 86% |
| HY-01 Hydration Protocol | 8 | 5 | 5 | 63% |
| SC-12 Supportive Compound | 16 | 9 | 4 | 25% |
| NP-02 Dietary Support Protocol | 12 | 8 | 4 | 33% |
| AD-05 Adherence Support | 9 | 3 | 3 | 33% |
By fortnight of recommendation
Recommended → accepted → adhered → retained, per 14-day window of treatment.
| Days | Recommended | Accepted | Adhered | Retained |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–27 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 19 |
| 28–41 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 5 |
| 42–55 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 56–69 | 34 | 28 | 28 | 8 |
| 70–83 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 7 |
| 84–97 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 9 |
| 98–111 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| 112–125 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
"Kept" is attributed conservatively: improved after the action and currently under 60% discontinuation risk. Learning shows how these outcomes change the model.