Black-swan watch: emergent clusters, actions losing effect, co-occurrence patterns across layers, adverse signals in responders, tracker anomalies across the program. A human sets the state.

What is emerging that nobody predicted?

Synthetic demo data

watchclusterEC-01 · Delayed loss of response

Response builds, then fades from the second month without a toxicity signal.

first seen day 57n 4551 days before clinical recognition

P-03018 P-03029 P-03035 P-03042 P-03098 P-03107 P-03117 P-03129 P-03131 P-03155 P-03161 P-03162 P-03163 P-03169 P-03197 P-03203+29

watchclusterEC-02 · Resilient responder

Strong response that survives an early toxicity episode.

first seen day 21n 4239 days before clinical recognition

P-03021 P-03049 P-03052 P-03060 P-03066 P-03074 P-03087 P-03141 P-03149 P-03171 P-03178 P-03185 P-03196 P-03200 P-03207 P-03208+26

watchtracker anomalySleep quality falling across the program where GI is rising

38 patients (8%) with worsening sleep and GI ≥ 40 in the same 14 days; sleep-window content is the cheapest lever.

first seen last 14 daysn 38

P-03001 P-03008 P-03026 P-03031 P-03033 P-03034 P-03037 P-03043 P-03045 P-03067 P-03084 P-03088 P-03099 P-03105 P-03109 P-03110+22

watchclusterEC-03 · High response / high intolerance

Early response followed by GI deterioration and treatment discontinuation.

first seen day 30n 2847 days before clinical recognition

P-03031 P-03034 P-03041 P-03044 P-03058 P-03067 P-03078 P-03088 P-03109 P-03124 P-03133 P-03176 P-03230 P-03237 P-03262 P-03306+12